November 21st, 2007
1954 resettlement of Qiuyonghan Japan, the Japanese public was known as the “stock gods” and the “god of making money”, the overseas Chinese community in Japan is the reputation of the loudest people. From the 1950s to date, the authors start from the investors, after Japan’s post-war economic boom, the bubble burst the bubble era and the Depression; whether social change, economic cycle fluctuations and crises faced several setbacks, and the cause they always stand.
The 83-year-old has every year five new work undertaken. He told our reporter: “very pleased that the situation has not, and now no longer do things for money.” Such a perspective and the experience of the elderly, for both, for each individual wealth.
On China’s economy: China is still a very new coaster equipment, the government should take care not to big ups and downs in economy
Guangzhou Daily: Do you think that China’s economy is currently facing problems with the 1980s, Japan has similar and differences between?
Qiuyonghan: China’s current situation like Japan that time, the liquidity surplus, which is more money, and affected the stock and real estate prices. China’s 2001 trade surplus with 250 billion US dollars, which means that the state should issue the value of the yuan so much, so too much money. More than a year ago, I accept the “Yazhou Zhoukan,” in an interview, said the two viewpoints, first, to China’s stock market rose 10 times, and the second is the renminbi should one become the block, now appears to have been China’s stock market five times, and I will of that, the whole market will rise, but personal investment operation is different, you operate wrong, then you will lose.
We are now sitting in this place, I 40 years ago bought, when a ping (3.3 square meters) 300,000 yen, it is now 30 million yen per ping. In our next office, was 500,000 yen, soon rise to the 1 million yen and 10 million yen, the highest bubble era rose 100 million yen.
Guangzhou Daily: As you said, China’s stock market and the housing market has emerged in asset prices sharply upward, do you think China will further economic Japan’s bubble economy footsteps?
Qiuyonghan: At present, China is just beginning, is not a bubble, isolated from the bubble economy still has a very long road. I would like to let everyone happy only once or, in this bubble formation in the process many people will become rich. But bearing in mind that the bubble more sustained long time, the greater the gap. When I came to Japan, the Nikkei Index is 10 points, went up to a maximum period of the bubble economy of the 39000 points, up 39 times, a lot of people can not think. Bubbles burst hit 16000 points, the lowest was less than 8000 points. China is still a very new coaster equipment, the Chinese government should take care not to economic ups and downs, not from the cable car fell.
Guangzhou Daily: Do you currently Japan’s financial system is how?China’s financial system is doing what?
Qiuyonghan: high-speed economic growth in Japan when the Bank of Japan, much of the role of the Japanese government, under the protection of the financial system has not adapted to the trend, after the rupture of the bubble economy has gone through a re-closure of the process to re-establish, and many Japanese banks are merged. I think that China’s banks will have this trend. I remember that in China, I called the bank immediately to take 300,000 yen, because of the emergency use, the banks told me no, can only give you 40,000 yen, more than 50,000 yen to book in advance to all the World Bank did not, my money would not be at liberty to take, I think that Chinese banks lag behind the times, recently, a part of foreign funds into the financial system, and it is better than a few years ago.
On the investment strategy: I was now relatively optimistic about the consumer plate, biological, pharmaceutical plate
Guangzhou Daily: Now contrast 2005, the Chinese stock market has had five times the growth, you feel that at present, China’s stock market, and what are the plate varieties worth investing in?
Qiuyonghan: I think that should be the year before the financial investment and insurance stocks, but now I think that they are not close to the. I am relatively optimistic about the consumer plate, biological, pharmaceutical plate. The pharmaceutical industry currently government-controlled prices, drug prices relatively low, but the volume of business in the pharmaceutical area will become larger and larger.China will gradually move toward the industrialization of agriculture, which is bound to the development of biotechnology. I think, after the H shares will have 10 times the rise, currently has just begun. As for the B-share markets, A and B shares of the evening is to merge. The A-share market, or if so, are you all to buy, or is the time to buy opportunities. Buffett when the stock rose is nothing dry or when it is necessary to constantly attention to the decline.Of course, but also to have a certain courage, and if the choice before you is wrong, and this time it is necessary to make changes.
Guangzhou Daily: You made a great investment in the property market success, in your opinion, house prices rose in China is staggering, it is reasonable phenomenon? How you forecast the development trend of China’s property market?
Qiuyonghan: the property market also rose, the more strict government control, the more prices will be up, the government’s functions and policies can not change the direction of the economy. But bearing in mind that China’s foreign houses and the different, first of all, China’s house only 70 of the right to use, followed by China’s many public houses because of the Environmental Protection properly, the secondary market will be of no investment value. Therefore, China’s investment in real estate, location is the first, second place, or third place.
Investment in real estate I have that feeling, I invest in real estate in Shanghai’s Pudong, I began to investment, the government told me the region a total of 20 buildings, if According to this scale, I calculate one square meters should be able to rent the 20 yuan, but when I completed the floor after the forest surrounding buildings, the rent per square meter only received two yuan.
On the bubble: I fell down to about one foot, one leg still standing, spent the bubble burst era
Guangzhou Daily: You are a writer from the start, a novel “Hong Kong” Japan won the highest prize in literature straight wood Award, writing on how investment from the road?
Qiuyonghan: I started to write articles living in Japan, writing articles can be divided into two to make money, one is to write of, and the other is to write money. Many of the people who write, I can not compete, so I write about money.
In Japan, had for the things that money can not openly say, I was in Japan first openly talked about money. Write money, of course, to see for investment. I entered the stock market, all the way to when it almost drowned in the stock market is to understand how matter.
At that time, most of the people operating the stock that is the way, buy the shares, was up one point to sell, but I am not the case, I choose which industries, which will grow a business, for instance, I settled on Toyota and Sony, I think they will grow. That year, 2001 is the Toyota vehicle production 20,000 small companies, but now Toyota is the world’s largest manufacturing enterprises. I know a friend, he is Sony’s shareholders, when he spent 50,000 yen to buy 1,000 shares Sony’s shares, when his death he owned the stock market Sony has been 1.5 billion yen, unfortunately his death has not been to sell the stock, so it does not enjoy.
Guangzhou Daily: Your investment property, stocks, the bubble economy you have not been affected, how they could survive bubble burst in the years to come?
Qiuyonghan: rupture of the bubble economy also I almost reversed, and one leg is about to fall, one leg still standing, spent the bubble burst era. Many of the bubble era of investment entrepreneurs came to me, I made a lot of investments, some 300,000 yen into 90 million yen and 10 million yen into more than 200 million yen, but also some not recover their original capital naturalization. The bubble economy, I built a building, leased to Yaohan originally signed contracts, but the bubble burst, the collapse of the Yaohan, a sum of the loss of 80 billion yen. Oh, I will not Man, also reversed almost. My safe, many have become waste paper stock, fully one meters high it.You.
Here many people I was ranked first in the world have called for the rich, some fall in the bubble era, and some was sent to jail. The reason I will be able to retain their own little property, because there is no future beyond their abilities bank borrowings. In that era, every day there are a lot of people came to my bank here to lend money to me.
On the inspiration and lessons: in the ability to control the circumstances borrowing
Guangzhou Daily: What do you think of China’s economy in the current issue of what needs vigilance? From Japan’s bubble economy in the process of what kind of lessons learned?
Qiuyonghan: Judging from the current situation, to avoid the development of the bubble economy appears to be unlikely. I think the industrialists, it is not to be concerned about their failures, the most dangerous is borrowing (loans), but can not borrow another development, in contradiction to the development, the ability to control the circumstances borrowing. But I think China will not be immediately faced with such crises.
For individual investors, the key is in the stock market saw The property will not retain dollars of property, not to use the dollars to invest, then buy B shares, although they are bought in dollars, or actually buy RMB assets, so there is no problem. Dollar down, then the stock will be up.
I think that the appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar is irrevocable, the current high trade surplus, we must adjust the renminbi’s exchange rate, because not afraid adjustments have an impact on exports, the economic impact of the future than they are now 10 times.
Information recorded in Tokyo
For a lifetime to buy apartments
After the bubble burst after 15 years of economic recession, the Japanese economy finally has resumed, prices have gradually picked up.This interview, this reporter Tokyo specifically on the current prices for a number of preliminary inspection, and readers can now Tokyo prices and Guangzhou, Shanghai, and other comparison.
Our translation of Miss Yan lived in Tokyo in the middle of the field, JR Line (light rail) after, the house walk from the station about six minutes or so, traffic is convenient.The house was bought a year ago, is a three-year-old second-hand housing area is 78 square meters (Japan according to the indoor area operator), 3 office at the Chamber, 1 kitchen 1 Wei and spent nearly 5,000 10,000 yen (about 3.3 million yuan). She told us: “Recently prices rebound, low-priced than at the previous stage were reduced house, but would like to further appreciation in the purchase of a lot of people. Professionals around me was also nearly bought the old building from the rental stations, after a loan-to-own property. ”
Location good(area of 60 square meters around use), about to 40 million yen, a monthly installments also 200,000 yen, about 20 years before, also need to buy an apartment life efforts. However, this price drop compared to the bubble economy many times, the late 1980s, similar houses around it takes one billion yen.
Tokyo, the same lot of people can not afford to buy the only renters.housing, a toilet and kitchen better position to the monthly 120,000 yen around to monthly 150,000 yen or so. A graduate of the University of Japanese young people’s wages in the 200,000 yen or so, the 30-year-old young people about the monthly wage 300,000 yen about half spent on rent. People really have no money to rent an apartment, 10 square meters per month to 40,000 from 50,000 yen, the common bathroom and toilet.
living in the outskirts of Nagoya, the Nagoya from her home to ride light rail station about 10 minutes.Her house was built on a two-tier Japanese traditional architecture, land is 188 square meters, housing area of 126 square meters, the total 50 million yen, land prices and housing costs 50:50. She feels that compared to the current price in Shanghai, her house very affordable, because the Japanese land and houses have permanent tenure.
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